Revenue Forecasting
Project future MRR, predict involuntary churn risk, and identify revenue at risk from payment failure patterns. Use scenario analysis and confidence intervals to plan your recovery strategy.
Revenue forecasting is available on the Revenue Command plan and above. Lower tiers see demo data with an upgrade prompt.
The Revenue Forecasting page uses your historical recovery data to project future performance. It combines time-series analysis with payment failure pattern recognition to give you actionable predictions about MRR, churn risk, and recovery revenue.
MRR Forecast
The main chart shows your historical MRR as a solid line and the projected MRR as a dashed line extending into the future. A shaded area around the projection represents the confidence interval — the range within which the actual MRR is likely to fall.
How the Forecast Works
The forecast model uses:
- Historical trend — linear regression on your MRR over the past 12 months
- Seasonal adjustment — monthly seasonal factors derived from your data (e.g., Q4 spikes, January dips)
- Recovery rate trajectory — how your recovery performance is trending, which directly affects involuntary churn
The model does not predict voluntary churn, new customer acquisition, or pricing changes. It projects what your MRR will look like if current involuntary churn and recovery patterns continue.
Confidence Intervals
You can choose between 80% and 95% confidence bands:
| Level | Meaning |
|---|---|
| 80% | There is an 80% chance the actual value falls within this range. The band is narrower, giving you a more precise but less certain estimate. |
| 95% | There is a 95% chance the actual value falls within this range. The band is wider but more conservative. |
Confidence bands widen over longer forecast horizons because uncertainty compounds. A 30-day forecast will have tight bands; a 12-month forecast will have much wider ones.
Scenarios
Three scenario options let you stress-test your projections:
| Scenario | Assumption |
|---|---|
| Optimistic | Recovery rates continue improving at the current pace, growth rate stays at the high end of recent performance |
| Baseline | Current trends continue unchanged |
| Conservative | Recovery rates plateau, growth rate drops to the low end of recent performance |
Use the optimistic scenario for best-case planning and the conservative scenario for risk assessment and budgeting.
Churn Risk Score
The Churn Risk Gauge shows an overall involuntary churn risk score from 0 to 100:
| Range | Label | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| 0--20 | Very Low | Payment failures are well-managed, recovery rates are high |
| 21--40 | Low | Some risk factors present but manageable |
| 41--60 | Moderate | Multiple risk factors; review your retry and dunning strategy |
| 61--80 | High | Significant risk of involuntary churn; immediate action recommended |
| 81--100 | Critical | Recovery program may be underperforming; investigate PSP issues |
Contributing Factors
Below the gauge, a list of factors shows what is driving the score up or down:
- Card expiration rate — upcoming card expirations that will likely trigger failures
- Decline rate trend — whether the overall decline rate is increasing or decreasing
- Retry success rate — how often silent retries succeed on the first attempt
- Seasonal pattern — time-of-year effects on payment failure volume
- New customer quality — whether recent signups have better or worse payment profiles
A factor marked with a positive percentage increases the risk score; negative percentages reduce it.
Recovery Rate Projection
This line chart shows your historical recovery rate (solid line) and where it is trending (dashed line). The recovery rate is the percentage of failed payments that LostChurn successfully recovers.
A steadily rising projection line indicates your recovery program is improving. A flat or declining projection suggests you may need to:
- Review and update your dunning email templates
- Adjust retry timing windows
- Enable additional recovery channels (SMS, self-service portal)
- Check for PSP-specific issues affecting certain decline codes
Revenue at Risk
The Revenue at Risk chart breaks down the total MRR that is at risk from predicted payment failures:
| Category | Description |
|---|---|
| Card Expirations | MRR from customers whose cards expire within the forecast horizon |
| Historical Decline Patterns | MRR from customers who match the profile of past churned customers |
| Seasonal Churn Risk | Additional risk from seasonal payment failure patterns |
| High-Risk Segments | MRR from customer segments with historically low recovery rates |
This helps you prioritize proactive outreach. For example, if card expirations are the largest category, you might send card update reminder emails before the expiration date.
KPI Cards
Four summary metrics appear at the top:
| KPI | Description |
|---|---|
| Projected MRR | Forecasted MRR for next month under the selected scenario |
| Recovery Revenue | Expected revenue recovered from failed payments in the next period |
| Churn Risk | Current involuntary churn risk score (0--100) |
| Revenue at Risk | Total MRR at risk from all predicted failure categories |
Forecast Controls
| Control | Options |
|---|---|
| Horizon | 30 days, 90 days, 6 months, 12 months |
| Scenario | Optimistic, Baseline, Conservative |
| Confidence | 80%, 95% |
Exporting Data
Click Export CSV to download the forecast data including dates, actual MRR, projected MRR, and confidence interval bounds. The export is formatted for import into spreadsheets or BI tools.
Next Steps
- Cohort Analysis — understand the cohort trends that feed into forecasts
- Recovery Metrics — dive into the recovery rate data behind the projections
- Plans & Pricing — compare plans to access forecasting features
Cohort Analysis
Track retention, recovery, and revenue performance by customer cohorts over time. Identify trends, compare cohort groups, and understand how your recovery program improves across signup months.
Industry Benchmarks
Compare your recovery performance against industry averages with LostChurn's benchmark analytics, percentile scoring, and per-method recovery rates.